PREDICTORS OF ONE-YEAR PRETRANSPLANT SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH CIRRHOSIS

The aim of this prospective study was to examine the usefulness of flow-dependent dynamic liver function tests and conventional methods of evaluating liver function as predictors of pretransplant survival in patients with advanced cirrhosis. Patients who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation within the follow-up period of 365 days were excluded. One hundred one patients with histologically confirmed cirrhosis were studied. Fifty-eight patients had post-hepatitic cirrhosis, 13 had cryptogenic cirrhosis and 30 had biliary cirrhosis. During follow-up, 28 patients died of their liver diseases. At entry, we recorded indocyanine green half-life, monoethylglycinexylidide formation from lidocaine, bilirubin and albumin serum concentrations, activities of cholinesterase and alkaline phosphatase, prothrombin time, clinical complications of ascites and encephalopathy and the Pugh score. These variables were subjected as covariates to a stepwise survival analysis by use of the Cox proportional-hazards model. At the final step, Pugh score, monoethylglycinexylidide formation and indocyanine green half-life were found to be the only independent variables significantly related to 1-yr survival. The parallel combination of Pugh score and monoethylglycinexylidide test yielded the highest prognostic sensitivity (82%). The series approach combining either the Pugh score and indocyanine green test or the monoethylglycinexylidide and indocyanine green tests was associated with the highest specificity (96%/97%) and high predictive values of a positive result (81%/82%). These findings suggest that appropriate combinations of the studied flow-dependent dynamic liver function tests and the Pugh score could be useful in improving transplant candidate selection and the timing of transplantation.