EARLY PREDICTORS OF 15-YEAR END-STAGE RENAL-DISEASE IN HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS

There has been a continuing increase in the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States, including the fraction that has been attributed to hypertension. This study was done to seek relationships between ESRD and pretreatment clinical data and between ESRD and early treated blood pressure data in a population of hypertensive veterans. We identified a total of 5730 black and 6182 nonblack male veterans as hypertensive from 1974 through 1976 in 32 Veterans Administration Hypertension Screening and Treatment Program clinics. Their mean age was 52.5+/-10.2 years, and their mean pretreatment blood pressure was 154.3+/-19.0/ 100.8+/-9.8 mm Hg. During a minimum of 13.9 years of followup, 5337 (44.8%) of these patients died and 245 developed ESRD. For 1055 of these subjects, pretreatment systolic blood pressure (SBP) was greater than 180 mm Hg; 901 were diabetic; 1471 had a history of urinary tract problems; and 2358 of the 9644 who were treated had an early fall in SBP of more than 20 mm Hg. We used proportional hazards modeling to fit multivariate survival models to determine the effect of the available pretreatment data and early treated blood pressure levels on ESRD. This model demonstrated the independent increased risk of ESRD associated with being black or diabetic (risk ratio, 2.2 or 1.8), having a history of urinary tract problems (risk ratio, 2.2), or having high pretreatment SBP (for SPP 165 to 180 mm Hg, risk ratio was 2.8; for SBP >180 mm Hg, risk ratio was 7.6). In addition, myocardial infarction during follow-up increased the risk of subsequent ESRD almost twofold, and congestive heart failure increased it more than fivefold. The rate of ESRD in those whose SBP fell more than 20 mm Hg decreased by two thirds.