LONG-RANGE ROCKBURST PREDICTION - A SEISMOLOGICAL APPROACH

Rockbursts are one of the most dreadful operational hazards of mining. While it is not possible to eliminate them from deeper level mining, the risk of their occurrence and consequential losses can be minimized if the spatio-temporal occurrence of the impending rockburst can be predicted. This paper describes an empirical approach for predicting rockbursts in a mining ensemble with a lead time of 6 months, based on the analysis of past seismic data of rockbursts. The steps involved are the seismic zonation of the mine, analysis of the stress regime for finding out their migration pattern, and the number-size distribution of the past rockbursts in each zone. The projected rockburst figure matches the ones actually recorded with an accuracy of 70-80%. Even the projected location of future rockburst activity falls in line with the recorded ones. This approach is discussed with reference to the rockbursts recorded in the Champion Reef mine of the Kolar Gold Fields of India.