THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COMBINED WATER DEMAND PREDICTION SYSTEM

被引：7

作者：

HARTLEY, JA

POWELL, RS

机构：

[1] The Control Engineering Centre, Brunel University

来源：

CIVIL ENGINEERING SYSTEMS | 1991年 / 8卷 / 04期

关键词：

WATER NETWORK; DEMAND FORECAST; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; EXPERT SYSTEM; ALGORITHMS;

D O I：

10.1080/02630259108970631

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

This paper introduces a system designed to improve the accuracy of short term water demand forecasts by combining a proven mathematical prediction model with a knowledge base of information relating to non-cyclic abnormal demand occurrences. In part one of the paper, a prototype system is described that comprises a mathematical prediction module and a simplified knowledge base of FORTRAN rules. The results derived from the testing of the prototype show that the methodology is capable of providing significant improvements in prediction accuracy when the normal cyclic demand pattern is disrupted. Part two of the paper describes the steps taken towards implementing the elements that make up a full combined forecasting system in the light of the knowledge gained from buildina and testina the nrototvoe. © 1991, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：231 / 236

页数：6

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