CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE UK

The purpose of this paper is to present time-dependent scenarios of climate change for the UK, including possible changes in extreme climatic events. Initially, the methods of scenario construction are described. These involve the scaling of the regional patterns of equilibrium climate change produced by general circulation models (GCMs) by the time-dependent projection of global-mean temperature change. A 'Business-as-Usual' forcing scenario is then used to project global warming to the year 2050. This projection is used to develop scenarios of the UK temperature and precipitation change. The implications for sea level are also discussed. Finally, the climate change 'commitment' for the UK due to past radiative forcing changes and the lags in the climate system, is considered.