THE NATIONAL VERSUS THE CONTEXTUAL - THE CONTROVERSY OVER MEASURING ELECTORAL CHANGE IN ITALY USING GOODMAN FLOW-OF-VOTE ESTIMATES

The analysis of electoral change has been dominated by two methods: swing and flow of the vote, In countries with proportional representation and many political parties the swing has numerous disadvantages. In italy the Goodman method for estimating flows of votes between elections became popular in the 1980s. But die reporting of national flows became the subject of controversy. This paper reviews the controversy and points out the general lessons that can be drawn from it concerning the merits of national versus spatial-contextual analysis of electoral and other political behavior.