SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF FORESHOCKS AND THEIR POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND PREMONITORY SLIP ON FAULTS

Foreshocks occur before a large fraction of the world's major (M more than 7.0) earthquakes. Teleseismically located events before major earthquakes from 1914 to 1973 were considered together to examine possible average temporal and spatial patterns of foreshock occurrence. Several days before the main shocks and apparently near the epicenters of them (delta approx. less than 30km) the activity begins to increase, culminating in a final rapid acceleration of activity in the last day. The acceleration continues up to the time of the main shocks, except for a possible temporary decrease about six hours before them. The seismicity increases approximately as the inverse of time before main shock. This relationship is essentially unrelated to the magnitude of the main shock. The magnitude of the largest foreshock is also unrelated to the magnitude of the main shock. In addition, pairs of major events are common. 10% of the world's major events are preceded by other major events within 100km and three months. For foreshocks within each of three sequences studied, the ratio of the amplitudes of the P and S waves were approximately the same, suggesting that the faulting mechanisms are the same for events in each sequence. By assuming an inhomogeneous fault plane on which asperities fail by static fatigue, we derived an equation for accelerating premonitory slip as a function of timme, which agrees with the observed time dependence of foreshocks.-Authors