BENEFITS OF SCREENING FOR BREAST-CANCER - APPLICATION OF A PROBABILISTIC MODEL TO A BREAST-CANCER DETECTION PROJECT

A probabilistic model for disease screening is applied to breast cancer, in particular, data from the HIP breast cancer screening project. The observed morbidity and mortality in that study are shown to be well fitted by the predicted values obtained from the model. Estimates of lead time average about one-third of a year over all age groups screened. Sensitivity of screening is determined to be higher in the older age groups. The predicted benefits of screening are a decreased probability of dying of breast cancer and increased life expectancy. These are predicted for all age groups considered. © 1979.