DEVELOPMENT OF PROGNOSTIC INDEX FOR PRIMARY SUPRATENTORIAL INTRACEREBRAL TUMORS

The clinical course of intrinsic supratentorial tumours is variable. Prediction of outcome would be useful in defining patients for specific treatment policies. A retrospective analysis of 560 patients with intrinsic supratentorial tumours was performed. Proportional hazards models for survival were derived by using a stepwise selection procedure with only clinical and CT features as possible explanatory variables. The variables of prognostic importance were age, a first symptom of epilepsy, focal signs at presentation, a cystic lesion on CT scan, and duration of symptoms before presentation. The model defined a group with a good prognosis (score less-than-or-equal-to 9, n = 211) and a group with a poor prognosis (score > 9, n = 344). The median survival was 27 months for those with a score less-than-or-equal-to 9 or less and three months for those with score > 9. An alternative model, not including duration of symptoms, is also capable of defining groups with long (score less-than-or-equal-to 16, n = 234) and short (score > 16, n = 325) survival. The model may provide a means of classifying patients for inclusion in prospective randomised studies.