Predicting Winter Surface Air Temperature in Northeast China

The author investigates the prediction of Northeast China's winter surface air temperature (SAT), and first forecast the year to year increment in the predictand and then predict the predictand. Thus, in the first step, we determined the predictors for an increment in winter SAT by analyzing the atmospheric variability associated with an increment in winter SAT. Then, multi-linear regression was applied to establish a prediction model for an increment in winter SAT in Northeast China. The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.73) between the simulated and observed annual increments in winter SAT in Northeast China throughout the period 1965-2002, with a relative root mean square error of -7.9%. The prediction model makes a reasonable hindcast for 2003-08, with an average relative root mean square error of -7.2%. The prediction model can capture the increasing trend of winter SAT in Northeast China from 1965-2008. The results suggest that this approach to forecasting an annual increment in winter SAT in Northeast China would be relevant in operational seasonal forecasts.