CAUSAL PROBABILISTIC NETWORK MODELING - AN ILLUSTRATION OF ITS ROLE IN THE MANAGEMENT OF CHRONIC DISEASES

This paper describes the role of the novel technique of causal probabilistic network (CPN) modeling as an approach to tackling control system problems typified by that of the administration of treatment to the patient suffering from a chronic disease such as diabetes. Three roles of a CPN are discussed. First, since diabetes arises as a consequence of impaired control of carbohydrate metabolism, the ability of a CPN to represent the uncertainty of a physiologically-based model is described. Second, its ability to make robust estimates of the parameters of the metabolic model is presented, and finally, in conjunction with decision theory approaches, its ability to compare alternative therapies and advise on insulin therapy for patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus is illustrated.