AN OVERVIEW OF THE MINK STUDY

Highlights of the previous papers in this series are reviewed. Methodology developed for the MINK study has improved the ability of impacts analysis to deal with questions of (1) spatial and temporal variability in climate change; (2) CO2-enrichment effects; (3) the reactions of complex enterprises (farms and forests) to climate change and their ability to adjust and adapt; and (4) integrated effects on current and, more particularly, on future regional economies. The methodology also provides for systematic study of adjustment and adaptation opportunities and of the inter-industry linkages that determine what the overall impacts on the regional economy might be. The analysis shows that with a 1930s 'dust bowl' climate the region-wide economic impacts would be small, after adjustments in affected sectors. In this final paper we consider whether synergistic effects among sectoral impacts and more severe climate change scenarios might alter this conclusion. The MINK analysis, as is, leads to the conclusion that a strong research capacity will be required to ensure that technologies facilitating adaptation to climate change will be available when needed. The capacity to deal with climate change also requires an open economy allowing for free trade and movement of people and for institutions that protect unpriced environmental values. More severe climate scenarios and negative synergisms can only strengthen these conclusions.