THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY MODELING AT THE FEDERAL-ENERGY-ADMINISTRATION AND THE ENERGY-INFORMATION-ADMINISTRATION

Energy modeling at the Energy Information Administration started with the Project Independence Evaluation System in 1974 and moved to the Intermediate Future Forecasting System in 1983, which was replaced by the National Energy Modeling System in 1993. The models were shaped by the forces affecting energy markets and by policy concerns. These forces included changing world markets for oil, shortages of natural gas, and environmental concerns. The models have been used to analyze legislative proposals, and these analyses have met with a variety of reactions that ranged from extreme gratitude to rage. Working as policy analysts when energy issues were at the center of national attention was exciting, exhausting, rewarding, and at times dismaying.