THE DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION REVISITED - LESSONS FOR FOREIGN-AID AND UNITED-STATES IMMIGRATION POLICY

The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate - modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates - has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized. These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity. © 1993.