SHORE PROTECTION MANUALS WAVE PREDICTION REVIEWED

Empirical steady-state wave prediction methods given in the 1984 version of the Shore Protection Manual (SPM) are compared with measured wave data and with three other wave prediction formulas including the one used in 1977 and earlier versions of the SPM. Fetch-limited wave data and overwater wind data from several sources comprise the data set. The other wave prediction formulas are those of Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider, Jonswap and Donelan. Results indicate that the 1984 version of the SPM, which uses an adjusted wind speed factor based on friction velocity, tends to overpredict wave height and period and, statistically, is the poorest predictor of the four methods tested. Use of the adjusted wind speed factor and other wind modifications are discussed.