SURFACE OZONE AND METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTORS ON A SUBREGIONAL SCALE

Meteorological conditions affect the ozone concentration near the surface. To quantify the importance of meteorological parameters for the surface ozone concentration a nonlinear regression analysis between 313 meteorological candidate predictors and surface ozone concentration at five stations in the German Democratic Republic over the period 1972-1987 has been made. The stability and quality of the relationship between ozone and meteorological predictors has been tested by independent samples. Most important predictors for surface ozone are the ozone value of the preceding day (persistence) and solar radiation. They explain 33-46% and 6-21% of the climatological ozone variance, respectively. As all meteorological parameters can be forecasted, the regression method described might be the basis for a short-term prediction of surface ozone. An analysis of long-term changes of surface ozone and solar radiation shows that changes in cloudiness are probably not the main cause of the long-term changes in surface ozone. Therefore, the ozone changes should mainly be due to changes in circulation and/or concentration of ozone precursors (NO(x), VOC).