VARIANCE REDUCTION FOR POPULATION-GROWTH SIMULATION-MODELS

A description is presented of three variance reduction models that use this interchange between collection and evolution to induce negative correlation between replications, thereby producing estimates with smaller variances. Model 1 describes a procedure that occasionally relies on the solution of a linear program to develop an optimal sampling plan. Model 2 offers an alternative that applies when the populations in strata are large. Model 3 applies when survival probabilities are functions of an exogenous random variable such as rainfall.