THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF RICKETTSIA-LIKE ORGANISMS IN TRYPANOSOMIASIS EPIDEMIOLOGY

A simple model of human and animal trypanosomiasis is proposed in which the Ross equation for disease transmission is supplemented by a differential equation describing the inheritance of susceptibility in the vector. The model predicts an equilibrium state of balanced polymorphism for the fraction, θ, of susceptible tsetse and the occurrence of periodic epidemics at roughly the observed intervals. A loss of infectivity to tsetse of mechanically transmitted strains of trypanosome would seem to be a good evolutionary strategy for the trypanosome. The main implication for disease control is that measures initially reducing trypanosomiasis incidence could trigger off subsequent epidemics. Since θ leads incidence, monitoring θ could give several years advance warning of major epidemics. The model leads to oscillations in prevalence which are only lightly damped. Other mechanisms producing periodic epidemics would interact with this mechanism, and result in only one sequence of recurrent epidemics. With typical random variation of tsetse numbers about the seasonal norm the model shows the behaviour of a narrow-band system excited by broad-band noise, i.e. predicted trypanosomiasis incidence exhibits an undamped series of oscillations of variable amplitude and phase, similar to what is actually observed. © 1990, Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.