We evaluate four theories that predict the distribution of power in exchange networks. All four theories-core theory, equidependence theory, exchange-resistance theory, and expected value theory-assume actors rationally pursue self-interests. Three of the theories add social psychological assumptions that place the pursuit of self interest in an interactive context. Predictions of exchange earnings by the four theories are evaluated against data from eight experimental networks, including types of networks not previously studied. These networks vary conditions that affect the chances that a position can be excluded from exchange. We find that when the theories base predictions on a network position's structural potential for exclusion, exchange-resistance theory provides the best fit, but when predictions are based on actual experiences of exclusion, expected value theory fits best. Our discussion focuses on the distinction between the a priori potential for exclusion versus experienced exclusion as factors in the genesis of power