GLOBAL WARMING AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND - A STUDY OF CALIFORNIA

In this paper we estimate changes in California's annual electricity use and peak demand by 2010 under two global warming scenarios. We use each warming scenario to produce an electricity demand projection with end-use energy models. Our analysis focuses on the heating and cooling of buildings and the pumping and transport of water for farms and cities. The results suggest global warming has a moderate effect on electricity demand. Under our worst scenario, a 1.9-degrees-C increase, we project Statewide electricity requirements will increase by about 7 500 GWh (2.6%) and 2 400 MW (3.7%). We conclude discussion with thoughts on the implications a warmer world may have for energy forecasters and resource planners.