STATISTICAL-MODELS OF THE OVERDISPERSED MOLECULAR CLOCK

The most commonly used statistical model to describe the rate constancy of molecular evolution (molecular clock) is a simple Poisson process in which the variance of the number of amino acid or nucleotide substitutions in a particular gene should be equal to the mean and henceforth the dispersion index, the ratio of the variance to the mean, should be equal to one. Recent sequence data, however, have shown that the substitutional process in molecular evolution is often considerably overdispersed and have called into question the generality of using a simple Poisson process. Several efforts have been made to develop more realistic models of molecular evolution. In this paper, I will show that the spatial (site-specific) variation in the rate of molecular evolution is an improbable cause of the overdispersion and then review various statistical models which take the temporal variation into account. Although these models do not immediately specify what the mechanisms of molecular evolution might be, they do make qualitatively different predictions and give some insight into their inference. One way to distinguish them is suggested. In addition, effects of selected substitutions that presumably occur after a major change in a molecule are quasi-quantitatively examined. It is most likely that the overdispersion of molecular clock is due either to a major molecular reconfiguration (fluctuating neutral space) led by a series of subliminal neutral changes or to selected substitutions fine-tuning a molecule after a major molecular change. Although the latter possibility, of course, violates the simplest neutrality assumption, it would not impair the neutral theory as a whole. © 1991.