TURNOUT AND THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE

Although political folk wisdom has long suggested that high turnout works to the advantage of the Democratic Party, this hypothesis has not fared well when subjected to empirical testing. The author finds strong and unequivocal evidence in support of the conventional view that greater turnout does profit Democratic candidates. This effect appears to have become more pronounced since 1960. The magnitude of the relationship is found to be considerable, such that even modest changes in turnout would have been sufficient to reverse the outcomes of recent presidential elections. The implications for party strategies and the study of voting are discussed.