NONLINEAR FORECASTING AS A WAY OF DISTINGUISHING CHAOS FROM MEASUREMENT ERROR IN TIME-SERIES

被引：1456

作者：

SUGIHARA, G ^{[1
]}

MAY, RM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV OXFORD, DEPT ZOOL, OXFORD OX1 3PS, ENGLAND

来源：

NATURE | 1990年 / 344卷 / 6268期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/344734a0

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise. © 1990 Nature Publishing Group.

引用

页码：734 / 741

页数：8

共 29 条

[1] PREDICTION IN CHAOTIC NONLINEAR-SYSTEMS - METHODS FOR TIME-SERIES WITH BROAD-BAND FOURIER SPECTRA [J].