APPLYING QUANTITATIVE METHODS TO THE PREDICTION OF FULL FUNCTIONAL RECOVERY IN ADULT REHABILITATION PATIENTS

The purpose of this project was to construct a pilot prognostic index for use in research and clinical practice that would predict functional recovery in adult rehabilitation patients at discharge using clinical characteristics at admission to rehabilitation (independent performance of seven activities of daily living and three basic mobility tasks). We constructed the index from retrospectively collected data on 1,020 adult rehabilitation patients who underwent rehabilitation between 1980 and 1986. Adjusting for patient characteristics, the odds of recovering independent function doubled for each ten-point increase in the 100-point functional status score measured at admission to rehabilitation (odds ratio = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.9 to 2.4). The odds increased by a factor of 1.9 (95% CI = 1.1 to 3.2) in patients with an impairment considered more functionally reversible and by a factor of 2.1 (95% CI = 1.3 to 3.4) in patients transferred from an acute hospital. The odds of functional recovery decreased in those over 79 years of age, in those who were unemployed before hospitalization, and as the number of comorbid conditions increased. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of developing quantitative estimates of functional prognosis. Prior to use, the index should be externally validated in different rehabilitation facilities. © 1993.