THE IMPACT OF FERTILITY DECLINE ON FAMILIAL SUPPORT FOR THE ELDERLY - AN ILLUSTRATION FROM THAILAND

The recent and substantial reduction in the number of children among couples in Thailand is commonly perceived to be one of the most important social changes likely to reduce the extent to which future generations of Thai elderly will be supported by their families. This analysis suggests that the impact of fertility decline per se will be relatively moderate with respect to coresidence, the most crucial aspect of familial support, despite an impending radical shift from the present situation, in which most Thai elderly have at least five children, to one where the large majority will have only two or three. Notwithstanding the very substantial fertility decline, few elderly are likely to be childless or to have only one child, and elderly parents with at least two children are still quite likely to live with one of them. An important implication of the study is that, in settings similar to Thailand, the negative effect of lower fertility on familial support for the elderly need not be an overriding concern when deciding whether or not to implement policies to reduce fertility.