ESTIMATION OF SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN FORECASTING AND DECISION-MAKING

With the increasing acceptance of Bayesian methods of inference and decision making in the application of forecasting and planning, the importance of estimating reliable subjective probability distribution assumes crucial importance. This article presents a critical appraisal of recent research on the methodology and reliability of various estimation procedures particularly relevant to some of the models used in forecasting. Particular attention is given to the types of psychological bias that characterize certain procedures. © 1979.