AN END-USE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL FOOD-REQUIREMENTS

The technique of 'end use analysis', borrowed from the energy sector, is employed to identify four sources of potential change in global food requirements. These include: (i) changes in global calorie requirements resulting from improved nutritional status and changes in physical activity levels, (ii) efficiency changes in the storage, handling, transportation and consumption of food which result in changes in the global level of food system efficiency, (iii) changes in the consumption of animal products, and (iv) changes to dietary structures due to increasing knowledge and concerns about the health impacts of alternative diets. This paper argues that, in the long run, there may be significant scope for altering the relationship between income and food demand, and that investments in increasing agricultural supply must be compared to investments in reducing the growth rate of global food demand. Given the current concern about the environmental sustainability of increasing agricultural production, reducing demand growth is one method of increasing sustainability, and is possible without sacrificing dietary quality.