EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PARAMETRIC ESTIMATES OF SEROCONVERSION TIME ON ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSION TO AIDS AMONG ITALIAN HIV-POSITIVE HEMOPHILIACS

The purpose of this study was to estimate seroconversion time using different parametric methods and to assess their influence on the estimation of the incubation time between HIV infection and onset of AIDS. Study subjects were 712 HIV-positive haemophiliacs enrolled in the Italian National Registry of patients with congenital coagulation disorders. Seroconversion time was estimated using the mid-point of each seroconversion interval (MID), the median of each interval under an estimated uniform distribution with cutpoints at December 1981 and December 1985 (MUU), the median of each interval under an estimated Weibull distribution (MUW), and the median of three random values drawn from each interval under the Weibull distribution (RUW). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative incidence of AIDS over a 7-year period was 11.6 per cent (SE 1.3 per cent) when using the MID estimate of seroconversion time, 10.8 per cent (1.2 per cent) with the MUU estimate, and 13.4 per cent (1.3 per cent) and 12.3 per cent (1.3 per cent) when using MUW and RUW estimates, respectively. This study demonstrates that the estimate of seroconversion time does not seem to be a major factor affecting estimates of AIDS incidence since the different techniques for estimating HIV seroconversion time yielded very similar results.