EFFECTIVE POPULATION-SIZE IN RED-COCKADED WOODPECKERS - POPULATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES

Loss of genetic variability in isolated populations is an important issue for conservation biology. Most studies involve only a single population of a given species and a single method of estimating rate of loss. Here we present analyses for three different Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) populations from different geographic regions. We compare two different models for estimating the expected rate of loss of genetic variability, and test their sensitivity to model parameters. We found that the simpler model (Reed et al. 1988) consistently estimated a greater rate of loss of genetic variability from a population than did the Emigh and Pollak (1979) model. The ratio of effective population size (which describes the expected rate of loss of genetic variability) to breeder population size varied widely among Red-cockaded Woodpecker populations due to geographic variation in demography. For this species, estimates of effective size were extremely sensitive to survival parameters, but not to the probability of breeding or reproductive success. Sensitivity was sufficient that error in estimating survival rates in the field could easily mask true population differences in effective size. Our results indicate that accurate and precise demographic data are prerequisites to determining effective population size for this species using genetic models, and that a single estimate of rate of loss of genetic variability is not valid across populations.