CHANGES IN CATCHABILITY IN A BOTTOM-TRAWL FISHERY FOR CAPE HAKE (MERLUCCIUS-CAPENSIS)

Management of the Cape hake (Merluccius capensis) stock off the coasts of Angola and Namibia has been based on surplus production modeling, which incorporates an assumption of constant catchability. Results of least-squares catch-at-age analysis and virtual population analysis were used to estimate catchability from 1968 to 1986. Estimated catchability was either relatively constant or gradually increasing from 1968 to 1978, but fluctuated considerably between about 1979 and 1983. The fluctuations may have been due to an inverse relationship between catchability and abundance or to environmental factors affecting fish distribution. The period of highest estimated catchability corresponded to the period of lowest estimated abundance and below-average water temperatures. If management is based on the assumption of constant catchability but catchability is inversely related to abundance, the risk of overfishing will be greatest when the stock is at the lowest levels. Future assessments should place increased reliance on survey data or incorporate an appropriate model of catchability changes.