POPULATION-GROWTH AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH - SOME MORE CORRELATIONS

Several studies using national data have shown that per capita income growth rates are uncorrelated with population growth rates. In this analysis, which draws on data from 86 countries, lagged fertility is added to the current rate of population growth as a predictor of the per capita income growth. The three-variable model shows per capita income growth to be negatively related to current population growth and positively related to lagged fertility. Statistical and economic explanations for this result are examined. Inferences are drawn about the relationship between the demographic transition and economic performance. Some implications for the debate between revisionists and Malthusians are noted. -Author