CONTINGENCIES AMONG EVENT RUNS IN BINARY PREDICTION

9 groups of undergraduate Ss (N = 53 males and 51 females) predicted which of 2 events would occur on 360 training and 300 transfer trials. Independent variables were run length combinations (2 and 3, 4 and 6, and 2 and 8) and the proportion of times a run of a given length followed a run of the same length (.25., .5, and .75 in training; .5 for all groups in transfer). Findings were, in general, (1) long runs were predicted more often following long than following short runs, (2) this contingency was reversed in the .25 groups in which consecutive occurrences of the same run length were infrequent, and (3) the effects of training sequences were still apparent after 300 transfer trials. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for a general model of binary choice behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved). © 1969 American Psychological Association.