DIAGNOSIS OF TIME OF INCREASED PROBABILITY OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD - ALGORITHM CN

An algorithm for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is suggested which allows diagnosis of the times of increased probability of strong earthquakes (TIPs). TIPs are declared for the time period of one year and an area with linear dimensions of a few hundred kilometers, and can be extended in time. The algorithm is based on the following traits of an earthquake flow: level of seismic activity; its temporal variation; clustering of earthquakes in space and time; their concentration in space; and their long-range interaction. The algorithm is normalized so that it can be applied in various regions without readaptation. TIPs, diagnosed by the algorithm, precede ∼ 80% of strong earthquakes and take on average ∼ 24% of the total time. © 1990.