SOME CONCEPTUAL AND TECHNICAL PROBLEMS IN INTEGRATING MODELS OF JUDGMENT WITH SIMULATION-MODELS

Recent research has focused on how policy makers learn from and make better use of policy-oriented simulation models. It is proposed that those who construct simulation models make simplifying assumptions concerning the wide range of judgment tasks that surround both model building and decision making in real policy contexts. Linking formal judgment models with formal simulation models has been suggested as an approach to dealing with these simplifications. This paper presents a demonstration experiment that illustrates how simulation models and models of human judgment explicitly can be linked within a unified framework. In creating this linkage six important conceptual and technical problems are encountered and discussed. While many of the technical problems are believed to result from the specific approaches used in the study (system dynamics simulation and social judgment analysis), the broader conceptual problems are believed to persist, even if differing methods are used.