Diagnosing autism using ICD-10 criteria: A comparison of neural networks and standard multivariate procedures

In a sample of 976 consecutive cases derived from the recent world-wide Field Trial of Autism and other Pervasive Developmental Disorders, we tested the accuracy of the 15 ICD-10 criteria for the diagnosis of Autism, by comparing neural network models (NN) to more conventional multivariate competitors, namely, linear and quadratic discriminant function analyses and logistic regression. NNs were less accurate than competitors, both in terms of cross-validation results as well as in levels of shrinkage from training to test conditions. The clinical research implications of these results are discussed.