PERSISTENCE, SEASONALITY AND TREND IN THE UK EGG-PRODUCTION

This paper discusses the time-series properties of UK egg production in order to provide an empirical analysis of the possible long-run impact of the shock on the industry following the recent incidence of salmonella poisoning. Our analysis shows that although the short-run properties of the UK egg production are consistent with the presence of persistent shocks, a shock of short duration is unlikely to have large long run effects. This result is remarkably robust to the choice of the persistence measure obtained. © 1991, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.