An assessment of the future refining impacts of the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. In 1992, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should finalize precise requirements for Phase I reformulated gasoline, to be produced in 1995-1999. EPA requirements for Phase II reformulated gasoline, to be produced after 1999, will not be established until 1993. The assessment of refining impacts assumes that reformulated gasoline with likely Phase I specifications will be produced for markets projected for the year 2000. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in U.S. coastal and near-coastal refining regions could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (1989 U.S. currency). The relative value of MTBE is the most important determinant of the reformulation cost. For mileage equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.2 to 7.6 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating.
