ASSESSING THE VARIABILITY OF STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICS

In predicting the course of individual realizations of an epidemic it is important to know the magnitude of the variability of such realizations about their mean. In this paper and in the context of the general stochastic epidemic, some methods of obtaining approximate estimates of this variability are investigated; one is a multivariate normal approximation based on an asymptotic Gaussian diffusion process, and another uses an approximating linear stochastic process. The extension of these methods to the more detailed models used to describe the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS is discussed.