TESTING BEHAVIORAL SIMULATION-MODELS BY DIRECT EXPERIMENT

被引：96

作者：

STERMAN, JD

机构：

[1] MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA

来源：

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 1987年 / 33卷 / 12期

关键词：

ECONOMICS - Theory - MANAGEMENT SCIENCE;

D O I：

10.1287/mnsc.33.12.1572

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

The decision rules in simulation models of human behavior purport to describe decision-making behavior as it is and not as it should optimally be. This paper shows how direct experiment can be used to confirm or disconfirm the decision rules in simulation models. Direct experiment uses interactive gaming in which people play a role in the system being modeled. Differences between experiments to test simulation models and experiments in psychology and economics are discussed. The decision rule for capital investment in a simple macroeconomic model is tested as an example of the experimental approach. The results strongly support the decision rule of the original model. Both model and quantitatively dysfunctional oscillations.

引用

页码：1572 / 1592

页数：21