THEORIES OF PROTEST AND THE REVOLUTIONS OF 1989

This study investigates the revolutions in the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia in the context of comparative theories of protest and revolution. After a review of recent methodological advances and the two revolutions, the Gurr-Lichbach mobilization of discontent model is adapted to the two cases and tested with longitudinal data. Rational action theories are integrated into a final model that can be used to analyze protest in authoritarian systems. The model performs better for the two revolutions than any predecessor. In ex post and ex ante forecasting tests, the model generated large prediction error; however, it forecasted historically unprecedented levels of sustained protest.