URBAN-GROWTH IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - DEMOGRAPHIC REAPPRAISAL

A review of demographic processes responsible for and associated with urban growth in developing countries suggests several conclusions that run counter to some common views of these processes. The rate of change in the proportion urban in developing countries is not exceptionally rapid by historical standards. Urban growth through most of the developing world results primarily not from rural-urban migration but from the natural increase of urban populations. Among the factors that influence the growth rate of individual cities, national rates of population growth are dominant. Urban growth in developing countries has typically not been associated with a deterioration in industry/urban ratios. Evidence for these conclusions is presented from a United Nations study of urban and rural population change, and policy implications are suggested. -Author