RANDOM-VARIABLES VERSUS UNCERTAIN VALUES - STOCHASTIC MODELING AND DESIGN

Recent decades have seen great progress in the use of stochastic methods to model aspects of water resource problems. However, the design implications of stochastic modeling have been relatively overlooked. In particular, there is little explicit realization that the stochastic modeling of single-valued yet uncertain phenomena yields qualitatively different information than the stochastic modeling of multivalued, uncertain phenomena in terms of the role of the modeled uncertainty in design decision making. This paper explores this issue by way of some simple examples.