THE IMPACT OF PERSONAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS ON PRESIDENTIAL VOTING, 1956-1988

This report updates an earlier study that examined the effects of changes in both personal and national economic conditions on individual vote decisions and, ultimately, on election outcomes themselves. Adding data for 1988 to the 1956-84 series (and correcting some errors in one variable) reinforces the quantitative and qualitative results of the previous analysis. The findings suggest that prevailing macrolevel conditions strongly advantaged any Republican candidate over any Democratic opponent in 1988, quite apart from any effects of the campaign itself.