A DYNAMIC-MODEL FOR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH-DISEASE CONTROL STRATEGIES

An integrated model for the personal computer is presented, in which a variety of preventive and control strategies with respect to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Dutch cattle and pig herds were examined economically. Special attention is given to the way in which losses due to export bans are determined. Export bans would occur as a result of an outbreak of FMD. Annual costs for the Netherlands would be reduced considerably if the yearly vaccinations were stopped. This conclusion holds even if more pessimistic values are used for some major uncertain input factors. The PC model is flexible with regard to input values, making it possible to fit different conditions and regions.