HOMICIDE AND FERTILITY RATES IN THE UNITED-STATES - A COMMENT

The negative correlation between annual homicide and fertility rates reported by Lyster (1974) is confirmed by statistical analysis extended to show that the correlation is largely confined to the post-World War 2 and holds for whites and nonwhites in nearly equal degree. Data support the hypothesis that homicide and fertility rates are responding to variations in psychological stress among young adults associated with swings in relative cohort size, the proportion of those ages 15-29 to those ages 30-64. It is suggested that periods of increase in the relative number of young men weakens their labor market position, and the result is to increase psychological stress, to discourage traditional role fulfillment such as family building, and to encourage antisocial behavior, indexed here by homicide rate.