AN IMPROVED PROCEDURE FOR EL-NINO FORECASTING - IMPLICATIONS FOR PREDICTABILITY

被引：293

作者：

CHEN, D ^{[1
]}

ZEBIAK, SE ^{[1
]}

BUSALACCHI, AJ ^{[1
]}

CANE, MA ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CTR, HYDROSPHER PROC LAB, GREENBELT, MD 20771 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 1995年 / 269卷 / 5231期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.269.5231.1699

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

A coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation procedure yields improved forecasts of El Nino for the 1980s compared with previous forecasting procedures. As in earlier forecasts with the same model, no oceanic data were used, and only wind information was assimilated. The improvement is attributed to the explicit consideration of air-sea interaction in the initialization. These results suggest that El Nino is more predictable than previously estimated, but that predictability may vary on decadal or longer time scales. This procedure also eliminates the well-known spring barrier to El Nino prediction, which implies that it may not be intrinsic to the real climate system.

引用

页码：1699 / 1702

页数：4

共 34 条

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