A NEW METHOD OF ESTIMATING PREVALENCE OF INJECTING DRUG-USE IN AN URBAN-POPULATION - RESULTS FROM A SCOTTISH CITY

Using modelling techniques derived from behavioural ecology, unnamed identifier data from a variety of partial samples of injecting drug users [IDUs] were used to estimate the prevalence of this population in Glasgow during 1989. The model yielded an estimate of 9424 [95% confidence interval +/- 2460] which represents a prevalence rate of 15 per 1000 population aged 15-55. The estimated male:female ratio was 2.64:1 and the modal IDU aged 20-24. These figures should facilitate assessment of the service requirements of this group and provide a basis from which the number of IDUs infected with HIV and the number likely to progress to AIDS can be determined. As the methodology required to facilitate reliable prevalence estimates utilizes relatively easy to obtain information it could be repeated in other urban centres where drug injecting is known to occur.