IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL-DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ON CRIME RATES - TOURISM VS AGRICULTURE IN HAWAII

In recent years, Hawaii's exports have been dominated by tourism. Expansion of resort development, however, has frequently displaced agricultural land uses. This paper examines the hypothesis that an alteration in the composition of economic activity in the form of a displacement of agriculture by resort development will increase crime with a cross-section analysis of the determinants of crime rates for the island of Oahu in 1975 and a parallel time series analysis for Hawaii over the period 1961-1975. Empirical estimates indicate that a significantly greater amount of burglaries, rapes, and larcenies will occur. Policy implications are then explored. © 1979 The Annals of Regional Science.