LONG-TERM TRENDS IN PAMLICO RIVER ESTUARY NUTRIENTS, CHLOROPHYLL, DISSOLVED-OXYGEN, AND WATERSHED NUTRIENT PRODUCTION

Trends in Pamlico River estuary ammonia nitrogen (NH4), nitrate nitrogen (NO3), phosphate phosphorus (PO4), chlorophyll a (chl a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) during the past 20-24 years were analyzed, and estimates of annual N and P production in the watershed over the past century were computed. The goal of the study was to determine whether or not the estuary is becoming more eutrophic. NO3 has decreased in the upper and middle regions of the estuary by 3-6% yr-1 since 1970, and NH4 has decreased throughout the estuary at an annual rate of 5.5-7.7% yr-1. Since 1967 PO4 has increased by 2% yr-1 in the lower two thirds of the estuary due to discharges from a phosphate mining facility. Thus the inorganic N:P ratio has decreased, which suggests that N is now potentially more limiting than in the past. In the upper estuary, chl a increased at a rate of 6.6% yr-1 since 1970, and bottom water DO decreased very slightly; neither showed trends in the middle and lower estuary regions. The weight of the evidence is that the Pamlico has not become more eutrophic during the past two decades. This finding is corroborated by the lack of a trend since 1970 in calculated N and P production from point and nonpoint sources in the watershed. Watershed nutrient production is estimated to have increased severalfold between 1880 and 1970, but appears to have stabilized after 1970, due primarily to decreased application of fertilizer on croplands.