WATER DEFICIT EFFECTS ON MAIZE YIELDS MODELED UNDER CURRENT AND GREENHOUSE CLIMATES

The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible "greenhouse" climates where temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO2 concentration, ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severely decreased rainfall.